Casselton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

719
FXUS63 KFGF 150832
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
332 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms this
  afternoon and evening in southeast North Dakota and portions
  of west central Minnesota.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 15 2025

...Synopsis...

Near zonal flow prevails today and into the weekend. A baroclinic
zone will stretch from west to east along this boundary, keeping
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast, mainly along and south of
Highway 200. Heading into next week, H5 ridging takes shape across
the Southern Plains, building gradually into the Central and
Northern Plains by mid week. This will serve to bring a drier
pattern to the area with minimal rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.
Mid level shortwave activity picks up on Thursday and Friday, with
the ridge retreating slightly southwestward. This could bring
another round of showers and thunderstorms to portions of the area
towards the end of next week along northwest flow.

...Severe Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon and Evening...

A stalled frontal boundary will provide an axis for thunderstorm
development this afternoon and evening across southeastern North
Dakota and west central Minnesota. MUCAPE values will range from
2000-3000 J/Kg this afternoon along this boundary and will gradually
increase as the evening progresses. Soundings support hybrid cluster
formation, with CAMs initiating convection early this afternoon.
Given the nearly stationary boundary in place, additional
thunderstorms are possible during the evening and overnight period,
especially for areas along and south of Highway 200. Wind gusts up
to 60 mph and large hail will be the primary hazards; however, a
brief tornado cannot be ruled out in west central Minnesota, where
model soundings support supercell development during the early to
mid afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1041 PM CDT Thu Aug 14 2025

VFR conditions through the night with a few thunderstorms
tracking east through northwest Minnesota. TVF and BJI will see
the main impacts from these storms with FAR and GFK likely to be
spared at this point. TVF will be clear of storms by 07z with
BJI seeing impacts as late as 10z. No other aviation impacts to
be concerned about.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...TT